The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter by Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien

Author:Robert S. Erikson & Christopher Wlezien
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: The University of Chicago Press
Published: 2012-08-18T16:00:00+00:00

5.4 Conclusions

This chapter has documented the relationship between the vote division throughout the election year and the Election Day vote. At the beginning of the year, vote intentions tell us little about the final outcome. Rapid learning takes place during the presidential primary season and, by the end of the nomination process, the electorate’s preferences begin to take shape. They still are only half-formed at this point in time. The conventions stimulate further learning, and preferences are largely crystallized entering the general election campaign. Surprisingly little changes from the conventions to the final week of the campaign. At that point we observe the last minute shifts from trial-heat polls to the vote, described at the outset of this chapter.

Along the way of our analysis, we have distinguished between the long-term component of the vote—the permanent accumulation of electoral shocks—and the ephemeral short-term variation around it. The latter may be of little significance except at the very end of the campaign. The former clearly evolves over the election year.

It is striking that in early January (300 days until the election), the reported vote intentions in trial-heat polls vary quite a bit from one election year to another, yet do a poor job of predicting the Election Day vote. On the basis of our analysis, the events that influence aggregate electoral preferences before the election year even begins must have no real impact on the Election Day result. Since they ultimately do not predict the vote, they are short-lived, and do not stand the test of time.

Meanwhile, as the election year begins, the fundamental forces of the campaign are beginning to take shape. Left to be discussed is the nature of the fundamental forces that drive this long-term component of the vote in each presidential election. That is the focus of the next chapter.

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